International award for research on extreme short-duration rainfall

13.01.2026

Short-duration extreme rainfall events play a critical role in triggering flash floods and debris flows, yet they remain among the most challenging phenomena to analyse and project under climate change. These issues are the focus of an award-winning study co-authored by Francesco Marra, Associate Professor at the Department of Geosciences.

The paper, entitled “Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts” and published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, was selected by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences for the STAHY Best Paper Award 2026. The study was conducted in collaboration with Marika Koukoula (SNSF, Switzerland), Antonio Canale (University of Padua), and Nadav Peleg (University of Lausanne). The award will be formally presented at the STAHY 2026 Workshop in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe.

The research introduces TENAX, a statistical model that incorporates physical understanding of temperature-driven changes in extreme rainfall. By overcoming key limitations of traditional statistical approaches and climate model outputs, the method provides a new way to estimate return levels of extreme rainfall in a warming climate.

A major advantage of the approach is that it enables projections of sub-hourly precipitation extremes using daily-scale climate information, allowing applications across different regions where high-resolution precipitation and temperature observations are available.

This international recognition highlights both the scientific relevance of the study and the contribution of the Department’s research to advancing knowledge on hydro-climatic extremes under climate change.